canadian inflation rose in may, surprising markets

Inflation unexpectedly rose in May, disappointing the Bank of Canada as it deliberates the possibility of another rate cut next month.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% in May from a year ago, up from a 2.7% reading in April. This increase primarily reflects higher prices for services and, to a lesser extent, food. According to a Bloomberg survey, economists had expected 2.6% inflation last month.

Cellular services, travel tours, rent, and air transportation boosted service prices by 4.6% year-over-year (y/y) in May, up sharply from the 4.2% rise in April. Price growth for goods remained at 1%, although grocery prices rose more rapidly.

Monthly, the CPI index climbed 0.6% compared to expectations for a 0.3% gain and up from 0.5% in April. On a seasonally adjusted basis,  inflation rose 0.3%.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation, the trim and median core rates, exclude the more volatile price movements to assess the level of underlying inflation. The CPI trim accelerated to 2.9% in May, following a downwardly revised 2.8% rise the previous month. The CPI median rose two ticks to 2.8%. Both measures of core inflation surprised economists on the high side.

Shelter costs have been a massive component of inflation this cycle. In May, rent rose a whopping 0.9%, lifting the yearly rise to 8.9% y/y, the second largest contributor to annual inflation. The single most significant inflation driver–mortgage interest costs–ticked down a bit to 0.8% m/m, reducing the yearly pace to 23.3%. It peaked above 30% last year. Excluding shelter, inflation is rising 1.5% y/y, up from 1.2% last month.

Bottom Line

Today’s inflation reading was undoubtedly a disappointment for the Bank of Canada, and it reduces the chances of another rate cut when they meet again on July 24. However, the June inflation data will be released on July 16. Barring a significant drop in June inflation, the next interest rate cut will likely be at the September meeting. That’s not good for the housing market, which has slowed to a crawl in recent months. The decline in mortgage rates proceeds as market forces drive down bond yields. Canada’s labour market is slowing as the jobless rate ticks up. Tiff Macklem said yesterday that he did not expect the unemployment rate to rise significantly further this cycle.

Interest rate cuts will be more gradual because rapid population growth has boosted economic activity, forestalling a recession and adding to inflationary pressure. The central bank’s overnight policy rate, now at 4.75%, will gradually move to 3.0% by the end of next year.

May was another sleepy month for housing

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) announced today that national home sales fell 0.6% in May, remaining slightly below the average of the past ten years. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity was 5.9% below May 2023.

With the Bank of Canada rate cut on June 5, housing activity will likely perk up in the coming months. The central bank will likely reduce the overnight policy rate from 4.75% to 3.0% by the end of next year. While interest rates will remain above pre-pandemic levels, there is pent-up demand for housing, and activity will surely rise over the next year.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes was up in May, though only by 0.5% monthly. Slower sales amid more new listings this year have increased the number of homes for sale across most Canadian housing markets.

As of the end of May 2024, about 175,000 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems, up 28.4% from a year earlier but still below historical averages.

“The spring housing market usually starts before all the snow has melted, somewhere around the beginning of April, but this year I believe a lot of people were waiting for the Bank of Canada to wave the green flag,” said James Mabey, Chair of CREA. “That first rate cut is expected to bring some pent-up demand back into the market, and those buyers will find there are more homes to choose from right now than at any other point in almost five years.”

With sales down slightly and new listings up slightly in May, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 52.6% compared to 53.3% in April. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 45% and 65% is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions. There were 4.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of May 2024, up from 4.2 months at the end of April and, looking past the volatility at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the highest level for this measure since the fall of 2019. The long-term average is about five months of inventory.

Home Prices

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) dipped 0.2% from April to May.

Regionally, prices are generally sliding sideways across most of the country. The exceptions remain Calgary, Edmonton, and Saskatoon, where prices have steadily ticked higher since the beginning of last year.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI stood 2.4% below May 2023. This mostly reflects the price surge that started last April and hasn’t been repeated in 2024.

Bottom Line

Housing activity will gradually accelerate over the next year as interest rates continue to fall. The Bank of Canada was the first major central bank to ease monetary policy. While there has been some concern regarding the impact on the Canadian dollar of repeated easing by the Bank with the US Federal Reserve on hold, the divergence may be smaller than expected. Recent US inflation data showed a meaningful improvement, suggesting the Fed could cut rates two times before the end of the year. Moreover, movements in the loonie have little near-term impact on inflation.

The Canadian economy is far more interest-sensitive than the US, and the relative underperformance of our economy is the largest since 1965. Further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada are warranted.

As interest rates are anticipated to decline, many homeowners are considering switching from a variable-rate mortgage to a fixed-rate mortgage. This strategic move can lock in the next term and offer significant financial advantages.

**Stability in Payments**
A fixed-rate mortgage provides stability in your monthly payments. Unlike a variable-rate mortgage, where payments can fluctuate based on market interest rates, fixed-rate mortgages ensure consistent payments throughout the loan’s life. This predictability simplifies budgeting and protects you from potential interest rate hikes.

**Protection Against Interest Rate Increases**
One of the primary reasons to switch to a fixed-rate mortgage is to shield yourself from rising interest rates. As market rates increase, your fixed mortgage rate and monthly payments remain unaffected, offering financial security and peace of mind. This protection is crucial for homeowners looking to avoid unexpected increases in their monthly expenses.

**Long-Term Financial Planning**
Fixed-rate mortgages are ideal for long-term financial planning and stability. With consistent monthly payments, you can accurately forecast your housing expenses over the entire loan term. This predictability makes it easier to manage your overall budget and achieve your financial goals.

**Risk Management**
Locking in a fixed interest rate mitigates the risk of future interest rate hikes. With a variable-rate mortgage, your borrowing costs can significantly increase if rates rise. A fixed-rate mortgage eliminates this risk, providing financial protection and reducing uncertainty in your financial planning.

**Potential Savings**
In certain economic environments, fixed-rate mortgages may offer lower interest rates compared to variable-rate mortgages. By refinancing to a fixed-rate loan when rates are favorable, you could potentially secure a lower overall interest rate and save money over the loan’s life.

**Easier Financial Planning**
Fixed-rate mortgages simplify financial planning by removing the need to anticipate and adapt to changes in interest rates. This stability allows you to confidently plan for other financial goals and expenditures without the uncertainty of fluctuating mortgage payments.

Overall, transitioning from a variable rate to a fixed rate mortgage offers stability, protection, and peace of mind, making it a favorable option for many homeowners, particularly those seeking long-term financial security.

For personalized advice on whether switching from a variable-rate mortgage to a fixed-rate mortgage is the right move for you, contact me to review your options.

Understanding your options can lead to better financial decisions and a more secure future.

Danny Benjamin

289-455-8801

A collective sigh of relief as the BoC cut rates for the first time in 27 months

Today, the Bank of Canada boosted consumer and business confidence by cutting the overnight rate by 25 bps to 4.75% and pledged to continue reducing the size of its balance sheet. The news came on the heels of weaker-than-expected GDP growth in the final quarter of last year and Q1 of this year, accompanied by CPI inflation easing further in April to 2.7%. “The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation also slowed, and three-month measures suggest continued downward momentum. Indicators of the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI have moved down further and are near their historical average.”

With continued evidence that underlying inflation is easing, the Governing Council agreed that monetary policy no longer needs to be as restrictive. Recent data has increased our confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain. “Governing Council is closely watching the evolution of core inflation and remains particularly focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.”

As shown in the second chart below, the nominal overnight rate remains 215 basis points above the current median CPI inflation rate, which shows how restrictive monetary policy remains. The average of this measure of real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates in the past 30 years is just 60 bps. The overnight rate is headed for 3.0% by the end of next year.

Bottom Line

There are four more policy decision meetings before the end of this year. It wouldn’t surprise me to see at least three more quarter-point rate cuts this year. While the overnight rate is likely headed for 3.0%, it will remain well above the pre-COVID overnight rate of 1.75% as inflation trends towards 2%+ rather than the sub-2% average in the decade before COVID-19.

Please Note: The source of this article is from SherryCooper.com/category/articles/

Managing rising living costs can be especially challenging when you’re on a fixed income with limited cash flow. Many Canadians resort to taking out loans, using multiple credit cards, and delaying significant purchases to maintain financial stability in retirement. However, juggling debts from different sources with varying interest rates and payment schedules can be stressful. This is where debt consolidation loans come into play, helping to streamline finances and reduce stress.

### What is Debt Consolidation?

Debt consolidation involves paying off multiple debts with a single, lower-interest loan. This approach significantly reduces the interest you pay and offers the convenience of managing just one monthly bill instead of several.

### Is Debt Consolidation Right for Me?

Many Canadians consider debt consolidation for various reasons, including:

– **Catching Up on Bill Payments:** Debt consolidation loans can help you pay off multiple overdue bills, such as mortgage payments, income tax, phone, internet, heating, and hydro bills, providing you with financial control and stability.
– **Paying Off Private Loans:** Many retired Canadians rely on private high-interest loans to handle monthly expenses or unexpected costs. Debt consolidation loans can pay off these high-interest loans, breaking the cycle of debt and freeing up more monthly income.
– **Paying Off Credit Card Debt:** High-interest credit card debt can be stressful. Debt consolidation loans can clear your credit card balances and consolidate them into one much lower interest rate loan, making it easier to pay off what you owe.

### The CHIP Reverse Mortgage: An Effective Debt Consolidation Solution

The CHIP Reverse Mortgage is a loan secured against the appraised value of your home. Designed exclusively for Canadian homeowners aged 55 and older, it can be an effective debt consolidation solution for several reasons:

– **Increase Cashflow:** Access up to 55% of your home’s equity in tax-free cash, while staying in the home you love.
– **No Required Interest Payments:** No monthly interest payments are required until you move or sell your home.
– **Easy Qualification:** No income, credit score, or health status requirements. Available to Canadian homeowners aged 55 or older.
– **Preservation of Retirement Funds:** Does not affect eligibility for government benefits such as CPP, OAS, or other income sources.
– **Protection from Market Fluctuations:** The No Negative Equity Guarantee* from HomeEquity Bank ensures you are protected even if your home’s value decreases.

Consolidate your high-interest debts, stay in your home, and enjoy tax-free cash to finance a more fulfilling retirement. To learn more about how the CHIP Reverse Mortgage can serve as a powerful and flexible tool for consolidating debt, contact me today.

*As long as clients keep their property in good maintenance, pay their property taxes and property insurance and their property is not in default. The guarantee excludes administrative expenses and interest that has accumulated after the due date.

Your mortgage agent contact info:

Danny Benjamin

289-455-8801

If you’re seeking a mortgage but your application doesn’t fit the criteria of big traditional institutions, you might find yourself in the “Alternative-A” or “B” lending space. This space includes lenders who offer more flexible qualifying criteria, making it easier for certain borrowers to obtain a mortgage. Let’s explore the types of lenders in this category and how to manage mortgage affordability within it.

### Types of Alternative Lenders

**Alt A Lenders:**
These include banks, trust companies, and monoline lenders. These large institutional lenders are regulated provincially and federally, offering products that cater to consumers needing broader qualifying criteria.

**Mortgage Investment Companies (MICs):**
Much like Alt A lenders, MICs follow the Income Tax Act and consist of shareholder investors pooling money to lend on mortgages. They have individual qualifying lending criteria, often broader than traditional lenders.

**Private Lenders:**
Typically individual investors or companies formed to lend money for mortgages, private lenders cater to higher-risk profiles. These lenders are generally unregulated and can offer loans to those who may not qualify with other institutions.

### Strategies for Managing Mortgage Affordability

Navigating mortgage affordability in the alternative lending landscape requires careful planning. Here are some strategies to help you maintain financial stability and avoid potential risks:

**Assess Your Financial Situation:**
Evaluate your income, expenses, debts, and savings. Consider your credit score and history, as alternative lenders have different requirements compared to traditional lenders.

**Research Alternative Lenders:**
Review the various alternative lending options with your Dominion Lending Centres mortgage expert. Compare interest rates, fees, terms, and eligibility criteria to find the best fit for your financial needs and situation.

**Understand Loan Products and Terms:**
Familiarize yourself with different mortgage products offered by alternative lenders, such as adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), interest-only loans, and balloon mortgages. Pay close attention to the loan terms, including the interest rate, loan duration, prepayment penalties, and any potential changes to the monthly payment.

**Calculate Affordability:**
Work with your mortgage broker to estimate your monthly mortgage payment based on the loan amount, interest rate, and term. Include other homeownership costs, such as property taxes, homeowners insurance, private mortgage insurance (PMI), and maintenance expenses, to ensure you do not over-extend your budget.

**Budget and Plan for the Future:**
Create a budget that includes your mortgage payment and other housing-related expenses while allowing room for savings and unexpected costs. Plan for potential changes in your financial situation, such as job loss, salary changes, or interest rate increases, by building an emergency fund and having a contingency plan.

**Get Pre-Approved:**
Obtain pre-approval through your mortgage broker to determine how much you can borrow and show your seriousness as a buyer. Be ready to provide documentation of your income, assets, debts, and credit history during the pre-approval process.

**Seek Professional Advice:**
Consult with a Dominion Lending Centres Mortgage Expert who can provide personalized guidance and help you navigate the alternative lending landscape.

### Conclusion

By carefully managing mortgage affordability and understanding the options available within the alternative lending space, you can make informed decisions that support your homeownership goals while mitigating financial risks. Whether you’re dealing with mortgage renewals, refinancing, or seeking a home equity line of credit, professional advice from a Mortgage Agent can be invaluable.

For a comprehensive mortgage consultation or to explore options like reverse mortgages, contact me today. Let’s discuss how to optimize your finances and find the best mortgage solution tailored to your needs.

Federal budget targets rich Canadians for new spending

The budget focuses on helping Millennial and Gen Z voters experiencing rising housing costs and other inflationary pressures. The government has set fiscal anchors, such as keeping the deficit below 1% of GDP starting in 2027.

The Canadian federal government released its 2023 budget over a year ago, promising to conduct a strategic spending review to find $15.4 billion in savings. The savings were supposed to achieve fiscal credibility by offsetting the $43 billion in new government spending. However, nearly a year after its announcement, the spending review found only $9 billion in savings, while the government piles on new spending measures in this year’s budget.

The fiscal path is mostly the same as in the 2023 Fall Economic Statement, but only after revenue gains from a resilient economy and further tax increases triggered even bigger spending initiatives.

Government spending is expected to be $480 billion in the next fiscal year, including $54 billion in payments on the country’s debt.

Finance Minister Freeland also announced a soak-the-rich tax scheme, levelling higher taxes on capital gains for people who make more than $250,000 selling stock or property other than a person’s primary residence.

Currently, 50% of capital gains profits are taxed, compared to 100% of a person’s employment income. That will remain the case for the first $250,000 of capital gains income, but it will rise to 66.6% on income above that level. So, the proposal is to reduce the tax-exempt amount to one-third for capital gains exceeding $250,000.The lower exemption would also apply to businesses for all capital gains, not just those over $250,000. The additional capital gains taxes are expected to rake $19.4 billion into the government’s coffers over the next five years, which is no small measure. This will reduce business capital spending, already at rock-bottom lows, rendering the Canadian productivity problem even more egregious. Higher capital gains taxes also disincentivize investment in residential rental real estate. 

The FY24/25 budget deficit is estimated at $39.8 billion (1.3% of GDP), with the numbers massaged just enough to meet the various ‘fiscal guideposts’. Any path to a balanced budget continues to be absent.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has said provincial government spending is already making it harder to lower inflation. Running federal deficits — on top of large provincial deficits in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia — is irresponsible. The government had previously set fiscal anchors, like keeping the deficit below 1% of GDP starting in 2027.

Philip Cross of the National Post writes, ”deficit spending when inflation is above target violates the 1991 accord between the Government of Canada and the Bank of Canada, which “jointly set forth targets for reducing inflation” and requires both parties to collaborate to achieve that goal.”

Cumulatively, the total deficit between FY23/24 and FY28/29 is now running $10 billion larger than in the Fall Economic Statement.

The Housing Plan

The housing measures were pre-announced, and the market impact should be minimal. However, the higher capital gains inclusion rate will impact those planning to sell valuable properties with much lower cost bases. It will change the economics of real estate investment in rental properties, an area that needs to be more generously funded. 

Some Other Housing Measures:

Allowing 30-year mortgage amortizations for first-time home buyers purchasing new builds. This measure zeroes in on a small subset of the market. In general, though, it stokes excess demand and ultimately does little to improve affordability once prices adjust. Also, limits on the size of insured mortgages mitigate its impact in our most expensive cities. Pre-construction sales usually require a 20% downpayment, which limits the use of insured mortgages, which account for only 15% of mortgage originations.

Increase the RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan limit from $35,000 to $60,000 and extend the three-year payback period.

Create a renters’ bills of rights and tenant protection fund. Some details here are curious, such as a national standard lease agreement (which is provincial jurisdiction). At any rate, the deck is stacked against landlords from bringing more quality rental supply to market—think taxes.

Accelerated capital cost allowances on the construction of new purpose-built rentals and removal of the HST on the construction of student rentals.

Increase the annual Canada Mortgage bond limit to $60 billion from $40 billion.

Top up the Housing Accelerator Fund to incentivize the removal of zoning barriers and tie transit funding to densification along transit corridors.

Bottom Line

This is a pre-election ‘tax and spend’ budget, which will do little to address the problems it claims to solve. It exacerbates other concerns, including insufficient business capital spending, low productivity growth, and insufficient investment in rental real estate.

Slowing the growth in nonpermanent immigration will, in time, do more to address the housing shortage than any of these measures.

Ready to take the next step in your mortgage journey? Contact me (Danny Benjamin – 289-455-8801) today for personalized advice and expert guidance. Whether you’re considering a mortgage consultation, refinancing, mortgage renewal, or exploring home equity options, I’m here to help. Let’s turn your homeownership dreams into reality! #MortgageConsultation #Refinancing #MortgageRenewal #HomeEquity #ContactMe #MortgageBroker #MortgageAgent

Summer’s the perfect time to spruce up your yard. Maximize your space with these high-ROI concepts, elevating equity and curb appeal simultaneously!

1. Sustainable Landscaping: Opt for native plants, drought-resistant foliage, and xeriscaping to conserve water and amplify your yard’s natural charm. Consider rain gardens and drip irrigation for eco-friendly options.

2. Outdoor Structures: Create inviting spaces with pergolas, arbors, or gazebos, defining areas for entertaining or relaxation while adding architectural flair.

3. Lawn Upgrades: Elevate your yard’s look with professional lawn care services, aerating, overseeding, and regular maintenance. Explore options like artificial turf for a hassle-free alternative.

4. Water Features: Enhance tranquility with fountains, ponds, or waterfalls, bringing visual interest and attracting wildlife for a luxurious feel.

5. Privacy Enhancements: Enjoy your yard in peace by incorporating strategic landscaping, fencing, or screening. Tall hedges, lattice panels, and climbing plants offer seclusion and beauty.

Incorporating these extra suggestions with your existing plans will turn your yard into a delightful oasis, boosting enjoyment and delivering substantial ROI.

Danny Benjamin

289-455-8801

In today’s economic landscape, the rise of inflation, interest rates, and overall cost of living can leave many feeling overwhelmed. But fear not! We’ve compiled five expert tips to help you navigate and overcome financial stress in these uncertain times:

1. Prioritize What You Can Control: Instead of fixating on factors beyond your control, focus on managing what you can. Review your expenses, such as phone bills and grocery costs, and identify areas where you can cut back or find more affordable alternatives. By taking proactive steps to reduce expenses, you’ll regain a sense of control and alleviate stress.

2. Pay Essential Bills First: When facing financial strain, prioritize essential bills to ensure critical expenses are covered. This approach helps prevent the anxiety of scrambling to decide which bills to pay and identifies opportunities to eliminate unnecessary spending temporarily. By establishing clear priorities, you’ll better manage your finances and reduce stress.

3. Automate Payments and Savings: Simplify your financial management by automating bill payments and savings contributions. Setting up automatic transfers ensures bills are paid on time, minimizing the risk of missed payments and associated penalties. Additionally, automate transfers to a savings account to build a financial safety net and reduce the temptation to spend impulsively.

4. Explore Additional Income Opportunities: Supplement your income by exploring part-time work, consulting opportunities, or requesting a raise at your current job. Generating additional income can alleviate financial strain and provide greater financial flexibility. Take advantage of your skills and expertise to pursue income-generating opportunities that align with your interests and schedule.

5. Consult with Your Mortgage Professional: Your mortgage is likely your most significant monthly expense, so it’s essential to explore options for optimizing your mortgage terms. Schedule a consultation with your mortgage agent to discuss refinancing options, adjusting payment schedules, or exploring alternative mortgage products with better rates. Openly communicate your financial situation and goals to identify personalized solutions that alleviate stress and improve cash flow.

By implementing these expert tips, you can effectively manage financial stress and navigate today’s economic challenges with confidence. Remember, there are always solutions available to help you achieve financial stability and peace of mind. If you’d like personalized advice or assistance with your mortgage, don’t hesitate to reach out to me. I am here to support you every step of the way.

Danny Benjamin

289-455-8801

dannybenjamin@dominionlending.ca

In today’s volatile economy, rising inflation and interest rates can leave many feeling overwhelmed. But fear not! We’ve curated five actionable strategies to help you navigate financial stress and emerge stronger:

1. Focus on the Controllable: Take charge of your finances by identifying areas you can control. Evaluate expenses like phone bills and groceries to find opportunities for savings, empowering you to regain control and alleviate stress.

2. Prioritize Essential Bills: When facing financial strain, prioritize essential bills to ease anxiety and uncover unnecessary spending. By identifying areas for reduction, you can streamline your budget and achieve greater financial stability.

3. Automate Finances: Simplify bill payments and savings with automation to avoid missed deadlines and penalties. Set up automatic transfers to your savings account to ensure consistent contributions, bolstering your financial security.

4. Explore Additional Income Streams: Supplement your income by exploring part-time work or consulting opportunities. Discuss potential raises with your employer to increase your cash flow and enhance financial resilience.

5. Consult with a Mortgage Professional: Your mortgage is a significant monthly expense, so don’t hesitate to seek guidance from a mortgage agent. Explore options to adjust your payment schedule or refinance for better rates, ensuring your mortgage aligns with your financial goals.

By implementing these strategies, you can effectively manage financial stress and achieve greater peace of mind. For personalized financial advice and support, reach out to me today. Let’s navigate these economic changes together!

Danny Benjamin

289-455-8801