In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.9% year over year (y/y), up from 1.8% in December. This rise was primarily due to an uptick in energy prices. Excluding gasoline, the CPI increased by 1.7% in January, down from 1.8% in December.

Higher energy prices, particularly gasoline and natural gas were the main contributors to this acceleration. However, these increases were somewhat countered by continued downward pressure on prices for items affected by the goods and services tax (GST)/harmonized sales tax (HST) break implemented in December. Notably, food prices fell by 0.6% year-over-year in January, marking the first annual decline since May 2017. This decrease was primarily driven by a significant drop in prices for food purchased from restaurants, which fell by 5.1%.

The CPI rose by 0.1% in January, compared to a 0.4% decline in December.

Energy prices rose 5.3% in January y/y, following a 1.0% increase in December. Specifically, gas prices increased 8.6% yearly in January, up from 3.5% in December. In Manitoba, gas prices rose by 25.9% due to the reintroduction of a provincial gas tax at a lower rate after its temporary suspension from January to December 2024.

Additionally, prices for new passenger vehicles increased by 2.3% year-over-year in January, compared to a 0.9% increase in December. In contrast, prices for used vehicles continued to decline in January, decreasing by 3.4%, although slower than the 4.1% decline observed in December. This marks the 13th consecutive month of year-over-year price decreases for used vehicles.

In January 2025, prices for food purchased from restaurants decreased by 5.1%. This decline was over three times greater than the previous record drop of 1.6% observed in December 2024.

Canadians also experienced lower prices for alcoholic beverages purchased from stores, which fell by 3.6% in January 2025 compared to January of the previous year, following a decrease of 1.3% in December.

Additionally, prices for toys, games (excluding video games), and hobby supplies dropped by 6.8% year over year in January after a decline of 7.2% in December.

Excluding indirect tax changes, inflation notably increased to 2.6% from 2.2% the prior month and a recent low of 1.5% last September. It was a similar story for core inflation—BoC’s main measures rose 0.2% m/m in adjusted terms, lifting both to 2.7% y/y (from 2.5% for trim and 2.6% for median). Over the past three months, both have risen at just over a 3% annualized pace, or just a touch above the BoC’s comfort zone. The Bank’s old CPIX measure of core, which removes eight volatile items and sales taxes, perked up to a 2.1% y/y pace but remains mild. Similarly, the breadth of prices rising above 3% is close to normal.

It’s a little less flashy, but more importantly, shelter inflation continues to grind down gradually. Rents posted their first monthly decline in more than two years (-0.1%), calming the annual increase to 6.3% (from 7.1% last month and a peak of 9% last spring). Mortgage interest costs eased to 10.2% y/y from 11.7% in December and the plus-30% pace in 2023. Offsetting those milder trends were big pick-ups in many utility charges.

Bottom Line
Traders in overnight swaps have reduced their expectations for a quarter-percentage point rate cut by the Bank of Canada at its next meeting on March 12, lowering the odds to just over one-third, down from a nearly even chance last week.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has successfully brought inflation under control. However, an impending tariff war between the U.S. and Canada poses a new threat to his efforts to maintain price stability.

Policymakers eased up on the pace of rate cuts in January after aggressively lowering borrowing costs last year, but they remain uncertain about the future direction. U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated plans to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Canadian goods in March, while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has promised to retaliate. A tariff war would likely compel the central bank to adjust its rate-cutting strategy to prepare the economy for the potential impact of tariffs on consumer prices.

The central bank will next determine the benchmark overnight rate on March 12. Economists are divided into two viewpoints: some anticipate further rate cuts, while others expect the bank to pause amid increasing uncertainties. Governor Tiff Macklem has expressed a desire to bolster economic growth and expects inflation to remain close to the 2% target in the coming months, influenced by fluctuations in global energy prices. Currently, the odds favor another 25 basis points rate cut in March.

Managing debt is challenging at any age, but it can be especially stressful in retirement when income is limited. Many Canadians turn to debt consolidation to simplify payments and lower interest rates. However, traditional options—such as personal loans, refinancing, or home equity lines of credit—often require a strong credit score and steady income, making them difficult for retirees to secure.

The CHIP Reverse Mortgage: A Smart Debt Consolidation Solution
For homeowners aged 55 and older, the CHIP Reverse Mortgage from HomeEquity Bank offers a unique way to consolidate debt without required monthly payments. By tapping into home equity, retirees can pay off high-interest debt and enjoy greater financial freedom. Many CHIP customers have found relief through this solution.

Why Consider the CHIP Reverse Mortgage?
The CHIP Reverse Mortgage offers several key benefits for retirees looking to consolidate debt:

• No monthly payments required: Unlike other loans, repayment is only required when you sell, move, or pass away.
• Simple qualification: As long as you and your spouse are at least 55 years of age or older, the rest of the approval process is based on home equity rather than credit score or income.
• Tax-free cash: Access up to 55% of your home’s value without affecting retirement benefits like OAS or GIS.
• Flexibility: Receive funds as a lump sum or in installments, depending on your needs.
• Protection against market fluctuations: HomeEquity Bank’s No Negative Equity Guarantee*ensures you or your heirs never owe more than the home’s fair market value, upon the due date of the loan.

Common Debt Consolidation Options vs. The CHIP Reverse Mortgage
You may explore various debt consolidation strategies during retirement, but they can come with challenges:

• Refinancing or HELOC: Requires strong credit and income; missed payments can lead to foreclosure.
• Unsecured personal loans: Often come with high interest rates if credit is poor.
• RRSP withdrawals: Can trigger withholding taxes and impact retirement income.
• Balance transfer credit cards: Signing up for a structured debt consolidation loan through a 0% balance-transfer card may require proof of income to cover your monthly minimum payments.

Take Control of Your Retirement Finances

Debt doesn’t have to define your retirement. With the CHIP Reverse Mortgage, you can consolidate debt, eliminate monthly payments, and enjoy financial stability while staying in your home. If you’re looking for a way to manage retirement debt, this may be the perfect solution.

To learn more about how the CHIP Reverse Mortgage can help you consolidate debt, contact us to learn more!

Danny Benjamin

(289)455-8801

Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate By 25 BPs

The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced the overnight rate by 25 basis points this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 3.0%. The market had anticipated a nearly 98% chance of this 25 basis point reduction, and consensus aligned with this expectation. The Federal Reserve is also set to announce its rate decision this afternoon, where it is widely expected to maintain the current policy rate. As a result, the gap between the US Federal Funds rate and the BoC’s overnight rate has widened to 150 basis points. This discrepancy is largely attributed to stronger growth and inflation in the US compared to Canada. Consequently, Canada’s relatively low interest rates have negatively impacted the Canadian dollar, which has fallen to 69.2 cents against the US dollar. Additionally, oil prices have dropped by five dollars, now at US$73.61.

The Bank also announced its plan to conclude the normalization of its balance sheet by ending quantitative tightening. It will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually to stabilize and modestly grow its balance sheet in alignment with economic growth.

The projections in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) released today are marked by more-than-usual uncertainty due to the rapidly evolving policy landscape, particularly the potential threat of trade tariffs from the new administration in the United States. Given the unpredictable scope and duration of a possible trade conflict, this MPR provides a baseline forecast without accounting for new tariffs.

According to the MPR projections, the global economy is expected to grow by about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States has been revised upward, mainly due to stronger consumption. However, growth in the euro area is likely to remain subdued as the region faces competitiveness challenges. In China, recent policy actions are expected to boost demand and support near-term growth, although structural challenges persist. Since October, financial conditions have diverged across countries, with US bond yields rising due to strong growth and persistent inflation, while yields in Canada have decreased slightly.

The BoC press release states, “In Canada, past cuts to interest rates have begun to stimulate the economy. The recent increase in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains lackluster. The outlook for exports is improving, supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.

Canada’s labor market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months after a prolonged period of stagnation in the labor force. Wage pressures, previously sticky, are showing some signs of easing.

The Bank forecasts GDP growth to strengthen in 2025. However, with slower population growth due to reduced immigration targets, both GDP and potential growth will be more moderate than previously anticipated in October. Following a growth rate of 1.3% in 2024, the Bank now projects GDP to grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, slightly exceeding potential growth. As a result, excess supply in the economy is expected to be gradually absorbed over the projection horizon.

CPI inflation remains close to the 2% target, though with some volatility stemming from the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on select consumer products. Shelter price inflation remains elevated but is gradually easing, as anticipated. A broad range of indicators, including surveys on inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among CPI components, suggests that underlying inflation is near the 2% target. The Bank forecasts that CPI inflation will remain around this target over the next two years.

Aside from the potential US tariffs, the risks surrounding the outlook appear reasonably balanced. However, as noted in the MPR, a prolonged trade conflict would most likely result in weaker GDP growth and increased prices in Canada.

With inflation around 2% and the economy in a state of excess supply, the Governing Council has decided to further reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points to 3%. This marks a substantial (200 bps) cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June. Lower interest rates are expected to boost household spending, and the outlook published today suggests that the economy will gradually strengthen while inflation remains close to the target. Nevertheless, significant and widespread tariffs could challenge the resilience of Canada’s economy. The Bank will closely monitor developments and assess their implications for economic activity, inflation, and monetary policy in Canada. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.Nevertheless, significant and widespread tariffs could challenge the resilience of Canada’s economy. The Bank will closely monitor developments and assess their implications for economic activity, inflation, and monetary policy in Canada. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.

Bottom Line

The central bank dropped its guidance on further adjustments to borrowing costs as US President Donald Trump’s tariff threat clouded the outlook.

Bonds surged as the market absorbed the central bank’s decision not to guide future rate moves. The yield on Canada’s two-year notes slid some four basis points to 2.79%, the lowest since 2022. The loonie maintained the day’s losses against the US dollar.

In prepared remarks, Macklem said while “monetary policy has worked to restore price stability,” a broad-based trade conflict would “badly hurt” economic activity but that the higher cost of goods “will put direct upward pressure on inflation.”

“With a single instrument — our policy rate — we can’t lean against weaker output and higher inflation at the same time,” Macklem said, adding the central bank would need to “carefully assess” the downward pressure on inflation and weigh that against the upward pressure on inflation from “higher input prices and supply chain disruptions.”

In the accompanying monetary policy report, the central bank lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2025 due to the federal government’s lower immigration targets. The bank expects the economy to expand by 1.8% in 2025 and 2026, down from 2.1 and 2.3% in previous projections. The central bank trimmed business investment and exports estimates but boosted its consumption forecast.

The bank estimated that interest rate divergence with the Federal Reserve was responsible for about 1% of the depreciation in the Canadian dollar since October.

We expect the BoC to continue cutting the policy rate in 25-bps increments until it reaches 2.5% this Spring, triggering continued strengthening in the Canadian housing market.

Stronger-Than-Expected Jobs Report in December

Today’s Labour Force Survey for December was much stronger than expected, as many thought the Canada Post strike would have a larger impact. Employment rose by 90,900 net new jobs last month, and the employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are employed— increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.8%. The jobless rate declined a tick to 6.7%.

Employment gains in December were led by educational services (+17,000; +1.1%), transportation and warehousing (+17,000; +1.6%), finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+16,000; +1.1%), and health care and social assistance (+16,000; +0.5%).

In December, employment increased in Alberta (+35,000; +1.4%), Ontario (+23,000; +0.3%), British Columbia (+14,000; +0.5%), Nova Scotia (+7,400; +1.4%), and Saskatchewan (+4,000; +0.7%), while there was a decline in Manitoba (-7,200; -1.0%). Employment changed little in the other provinces.

Total hours worked rose 0.5% in December and were up 2.1% compared with 12 months earlier.

Average hourly wages among employees were up 3.8% (+$1.32 to $35.77) on a year-over-year basis in December, following growth of 4.1% in November (not seasonally adjusted).

Employment rose by 91,000 (+0.4%) in December, mostly in full-time work (+56,000; +0.3%). This follows an increase in November (+51,000) and marks the third employment gain in the past four months.

The year 2024 ended with 413,000 (+2.0%) more people working in December compared with 12 months earlier. This year-over-year growth rate was comparable to the one observed in December 2023 (+2.1%) and to the average growth rate for December over the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period of 2017 to 2019 (+1.9%).

Public sector employment rose by 40,000 (+0.9%) in December, the second consecutive monthly increase. In the 12 months to December, public sector employment rose by 156,000 (+3.7%), driven by gains in the public-sector components of educational services as well as health care and social assistance. Private sector employment was little changed in December (+27,000; +0.2%) and was up 191,000 (+1.4%) on a year-over-year basis. The number of self-employed people rose by 24,000 (+0.9%) in December, the first increase since February. This brought total gains in self-employment for the year to 64,000 (+2.4%).

Wage inflation slowed markedly in November and December, providing welcome news for the Bank of Canada. While the strength of this report has led some to speculate the central bank will ease less aggressively, we agree that jumbo rate cuts are a thing of the past. However, monetary policy is still overly restrictive, especially if the Trump tariff threats come to fruition.

We expect the BoC to take the overnight rate down from 3.25% today to 2.5% by mid-year in quarter-point increments.

Bottom Line

The Canadian Labour Force Survey is notoriously volatile. One robust report does not change the Bank of Canada’s easing plans to return interest rates to neutrality–the level at which monetary policy is neither contractionary nor expansionary. Today’s US employment report was also quite strong, reducing the unemployment rate to 4.1%. While the Fed is unlikely to cut rates when the FOMC meets again on January 29, the Bank of Canada has room to ease further. Canada’s economy is far more interest-sensitive than the US, and interest rates in Canada -though historically low compared to the US- are still overly restrictive.

With inflation and rising prices affecting Canadians nationwide, now is the perfect time to take charge of your finances. One of the most effective ways to do this is by creating a monthly budget. A well-structured budget provides a clear picture of your income, tracks your expenses, and helps you make informed decisions to increase your cash flow or simply reduce financial stress.

Follow these six simple steps to build a budget and set yourself up for financial success in the year ahead:

Step 1: Calculate Your Income

Start by determining your net income (after taxes), not your gross salary. Knowing exactly how much money you have coming in will prevent overspending and set realistic expectations for your budget.

Step 2: Track Your Spending

The next step is to track your spending. Start by reviewing and categorizing your monthly expenses:

• Fixed Expenses: Costs that stay consistent, like rent/mortgage payments, car loans, and insurance premiums.
• Variable Expenses: Costs that can fluctuate, like groceries, gas, and entertainment.

This process helps identify where your money is going and pinpoints areas where you can cut back. Most savings opportunities lie within your variable expenses.

Step 3: Set Realistic Goals

Establishing achievable financial goals is essential for long-term success. The widely used 50/30/20 rule can help guide your budgeting:

• 50% for Needs: Rent/mortgage, utilities, groceries, and transportation.
• 30% for Wants: Shopping, dining out, vacations, and streaming subscriptions.
• 20% for Savings or Debt: Emergency funds, retirement savings, or paying off loans and credit card debt.

Step 4: Make a Plan

With your goals in place, create a plan to meet them. Set realistic spending limits for each category or re-prioritize your expenses to free up cash. This step might require some adjustments, but it ensures you’re taking control of your finances.

Step 5: Adjust Your Spending

Once your plan is in place, look for opportunities to adjust your spending to stay within your budget. Evaluate your “wants” and reduce non-essential purchases. You should also review your fixed expenses—such as refinancing your mortgage to a better rate or changing loan payment schedules. Connect with me to explore ways your mortgage can help improve your monthly cash flow!

Step 6: Stay on Track

Review your budget monthly to track your progress and identify any shifts in spending habits. Conduct an annual review to account for wage increases or expense changes that may require you to adjust your financial plan.

Helpful Tools

If you need extra guidance, the Government of Canada offers a free online budget planner tool to help you get started.

Why Budgeting Matters

A healthy budget is the foundation of financial freedom. By taking control of your income and expenses, you can reduce stress, increase your savings, and gain peace of mind—even in uncertain economic times.

If you’d like to explore how your mortgage could help improve your financial position, contact me today for a free consultation. Together, we can set you up for a prosperous year ahead!

Are you thinking about buying your first home? Congratulations! This is a major milestone, and we want to make sure you know about all the fantastic first-time homebuyer benefits available to help you save money and make the home-buying process smoother. Let’s dive into some incredible programs and incentives designed just for you.

1. New or Pre-Construction Homes: 30-Year Amortization

First-time buyers interested in purchasing a new build or pre-construction home can take advantage of a 30-year amortization period. What does this mean for you? A longer amortization period allows you to spread out your mortgage payments over a longer time, resulting in lower monthly payments. This option can make homeownership more affordable, especially when compared to the standard 25-year amortization period.

2. Enhanced Mortgage Default Insurance Coverage

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has increased its mortgage default insurance coverage, now insuring homes worth up to $1.5 million (up from $1 million). This expanded coverage makes it easier for first-time buyers to qualify for insured mortgages, even in higher-priced markets. This update is a game-changer for many Canadians looking to enter the housing market with less than a 20% down payment.

3. The Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) – Access Your RRSP for Your Down Payment

Did you know you can use your RRSP savings for your down payment? The Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) allows first-time homebuyers to withdraw up to $60,000 from their RRSPs (Registered Retirement Savings Plans) to put toward buying a home. Even better, if you’re purchasing with a partner who also qualifies as a first-time buyer, you can access up to $120,000 combined. This program gives you a significant boost in securing your dream home.

4. First Home Savings Account (FHSA) – Tax-Free Savings for Your Down Payment

The First Home Savings Account (FHSA) is a tax-advantaged account designed to help first-time homebuyers save for their down payment. You can contribute up to $8,000 per year, with a lifetime maximum of $40,000. The best part? You won’t pay taxes on the interest earned in this account. It’s an excellent way to build your savings faster while keeping more of your money working for you.

5. First-Time Homebuyer Property Transfer Tax Exemption

Buying your first home can be expensive, but there’s good news: first-time buyers may be eligible for a property transfer tax exemption. This exemption can save you thousands of dollars, depending on the purchase price of your property. Here’s how it breaks down:

• For homes valued at $500,000 or less, you can claim a full exemption, meaning you pay no property transfer tax.
• For homes priced between $500,000 and $835,000, you can claim an exemption amount up to $8,000.
• For homes valued between $835,000 and $860,000, the exemption amount is gradually reduced, potentially saving you up to $15,200.

6. Land Transfer Tax Rebates – More Savings Across Provinces

In certain provinces and cities, first-time homebuyers can benefit from land transfer tax rebates. If you’re purchasing in Ontario, British Columbia, Prince Edward Island, or the City of Toronto, you may qualify for these rebates, which can significantly reduce your upfront costs. Be sure to check the specific requirements in your area, as they can differ.

Get Started on Your Homeownership Journey Today!

These benefits are designed to make buying your first home more accessible and affordable. From longer amortization options and enhanced insurance coverage to tax-free savings accounts and transfer tax exemptions, there are plenty of ways for first-time buyers to save.

Ready to take the next step? Contact Danny Benjamin today to learn more about these programs and find out how you can maximize your benefits as a first-time homebuyer. Let’s turn your dream of owning a home into a reality!

Phone: (289) 455-8801

Email: dannybenjamin@dominionlending.ca

With recent interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, now is a great time to understand how these changes might impact your mortgage. Let’s dive into how these shifts could benefit you — whether you’re a current homeowner, looking to renew, or considering purchasing a home.

### Variable-Rate Mortgages: More Cash Flow in Your Pocket
If you have a variable-rate mortgage, the recent rate cuts mean you’re likely to see a decrease in your monthly payments, freeing up more cash each month. For example, if you have a mortgage balance of $750,000 at a previous rate of 5.95%, your estimated monthly payment was around $4,809. With the new rate of 5.45%, your monthly payment would be closer to $4,583 — saving you about $226 per month ($30 per $100,000 balance). These extra savings can help increase your cash flow and make room in your budget.

*(Example rates based on Prime minus 0.50%, with old prime at 6.45% and new prime at 5.95%.)*

### Fixed-Rate Mortgages and Renewals: New Opportunities on the Horizon
If you’re on a fixed-rate mortgage or have a renewal coming up, the Bank of Canada’s rate cuts can still impact your options. While fixed-rate mortgages don’t automatically adjust to rate changes, this lower interest rate environment could mean more favorable terms when it’s time to renew. For many homeowners, this means greater borrowing power, allowing you to make your money stretch further.

It’s also worth noting that lower rates introduce more variable-rate options into the marketplace, which may offer you flexibility if you’re considering switching from a fixed to a variable-rate mortgage.

### First-Time Buyers: Expanded Borrowing Power
For those entering the housing market, these rate cuts are especially good news. Lower rates mean increased borrowing power, which can open up more opportunities to find your ideal home. A reduced monthly payment makes homeownership more accessible, allowing first-time buyers to allocate more comfortably toward their mortgage.

### Future Rate Predictions: Even More Savings Ahead?
The Bank of Canada has one more rate decision dates this year, in December. Many experts predict further quarter-point cut, potentially bringing the overnight rate down to 4.0% by the end of the year, with possible reductions to as low as 2.75% next year. This trend could provide even more benefits for homeowners, prospective buyers, and those nearing mortgage renewal.

### Remember, Rate Isn’t Everything
While interest rates are a key part of any mortgage, it’s essential to look at the full picture. Factors such as the type of mortgage, down payment amount, payment schedule, and amortization period can all impact affordability and financial stability. Working with an expert can help ensure you’re making the right decision for your unique situation.

### Let’s Chat About Your Options!
If you’re curious about what these changes mean for you specifically, reach out! I’m here to help you understand how rate shifts might impact your mortgage, borrowing power, and overall financial picture.

Ready to explore your options? Contact me today, and let’s discuss how you can make the most of the current mortgage landscape!

Creating a legacy is about more than just leaving behind financial assets—it’s about enriching the lives of your loved ones and making a meaningful impact on your community. For Canadian homeowners, the CHIP Reverse Mortgage offers a unique way to create a “living legacy” by accessing the equity in your home and supporting your family, community, and charitable causes.

If you’re searching for flexible mortgage solutions that allow you to make a difference now, here’s how the CHIP Reverse Mortgage can help you build a living legacy.

Support the Next Generation with a Down Payment

Rising home prices have made it challenging for many young Canadians to enter the housing market. As a homeowner, you can help by providing financial support through the “Bank of Mom and Dad.” By using a portion of your home’s equity with the CHIP Reverse Mortgage, you can assist your children or grandchildren with a down payment on their first home. This not only helps them achieve homeownership but allows you to witness the security and joy that owning a home can bring to their lives.

Create Educational Funds for Your Grandchildren

Investing in education is one of the most impactful ways to ensure a bright future for the next generation. With the CHIP Reverse Mortgage, you can create educational funds for your grandchildren, giving them the financial resources to pursue higher education and career goals. The satisfaction of watching them thrive in their personal and professional journeys becomes part of your lasting legacy.

Contribute to a Wedding

Weddings are a special milestone, but they can also be a significant financial burden. If your loved ones are planning a wedding, using your home’s equity can ease that burden. With the CHIP Reverse Mortgage, you can contribute to their big day, making it a beautiful and memorable occasion while keeping your own financial security intact.

Give Back with Charitable Donations

Leaving a legacy through charitable giving is a wonderful way to make a lasting impact on your community. Whether you want to donate to causes that are close to your heart or support local initiatives, the CHIP Reverse Mortgage gives you the financial flexibility to make significant contributions while benefiting from potential tax advantages. Your generosity not only benefits others but strengthens your connection to your community.

Build Family Traditions and Memories

Creating a living legacy isn’t just about finances—it’s also about making lasting memories with your family. Whether it’s planning special family vacations, building traditions, or simply spending more quality time with your loved ones, these moments become cherished parts of your legacy. The CHIP Reverse Mortgage can give you the financial freedom to focus on what matters most—building unforgettable experiences with your family.

How the CHIP Reverse Mortgage Helps You Create a Legacy

The CHIP Reverse Mortgage is designed for Canadian homeowners aged 55 and older, allowing you to access up to 55% of your home’s equity without requiring monthly mortgage payments. You can stay in the home you love while using the funds to support your living legacy goals, whether that’s helping your children buy their first home, setting up educational funds, or giving back to your community.

With the CHIP Reverse Mortgage, you have the financial flexibility to create a legacy of love, support, and impact. You can enrich the lives of your loved ones today while maintaining your financial independence for years to come.

Ready to Build Your Legacy?

If you want to learn more about how the CHIP Reverse Mortgage can help you achieve your financial and legacy goals, reach out to me today. Let’s discuss how this innovative solution can help you make a lasting difference for your family and community.

Bank of Canada Cuts Rates Another Quarter Point

Today, the Bank of Canada cut the overnight policy rate by another 25 basis points to 4.25%. This is the third consecutive decrease since June. The Bank’s decision reflects two main developments. First, headline and core inflation have continued to ease as expected. Second, as inflation gets closer to the target, the central bank wants to see economic growth pick up to absorb the slack in the economy so inflation returns sustainably to the 2% target.

Overall, the economy’s weakness continues to pull inflation down. However, price pressures in shelter and some other services are holding inflation up. Since the July Monetary Policy Report, the upward forces from prices for shelter and some other services have eased slightly. At the same time, the downward pressure from excess supply in the economy remains.

Tiff Macklem said today, “If inflation continues to ease broadly in line with the central bank’s July forecast, it is reasonable to expect further cuts in the policy rate. We will continue to assess the opposing forces on inflation and take our monetary policy decisions one at a time.”

The economy grew by 2.1% in the second quarter, led by government spending and business investment. This was slightly stronger than forecast in July. Together with the first quarter’s growth of 1.8%, the economy grew by about 2% over the first half of 2024. That’s a healthy rebound from our near-zero growth in the second half of 2023. The Bank’s July projection has growth strengthening further in the second half of this year. Recent indicators suggest there is some downside risk to this pickup. In particular, preliminary indicators suggest that economic activity was soft through June and July, and employment growth has stalled in recent months.

That makes this Friday’s Labour Force Survey data for August particularly important. We expect economic activity to slow in the third quarter to rough 1.3%, keeping the Bank in an easing posture through next year.

The unemployment rate has risen over the last year to 6.4% in June and July. The rise is concentrated in youth and newcomers to Canada, who find it more challenging to get a job. Business layoffs remain moderate, but hiring has been weak. The slack in the labour market is expected to slow wage growth, which remains elevated relative to productivity.

Turning to price pressures, CPI inflation eased further to 2.5% in July, and the central bank’s preferred measures of core inflation also moved lower. With the share of CPI components growing above 3% around its historical norm, there is little evidence of broad-based price pressures. But shelter price inflation is still too high. Despite some early signs of easing, it remains the most significant contributor to overall inflation. Inflation remains elevated in some other services but has declined sharply in manufacturing and goods prices.

As outlined in the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report, inflation is expected to ease further in the months ahead. It may bump up later in the year as base-year effects unwind, and there is a risk that the upward forces on inflation could be more potent than expected. At the same time, with inflation getting closer to the target, the central bank must increasingly guard against the risk that the economy is too weak and inflation falls too much. Judging from comments made at today’s press conference, the BoC is at least as concerned about too much disinflation–taking the economy into a deflationary spiral.

Macklem said, “We are determined to bring inflation down to the 2% target and keep it there. We care as much about inflation being below the target as we do about it being above it. The economy functions well when inflation is around 2%.” With continued easing in broad inflationary pressures, the Governing Council reduced the policy interest rate by 25 basis points. Excess supply in the economy continues to put downward pressure on inflation, while price increases in shelter and some other services are holding inflation up. The Governing Council is carefully assessing these opposing forces on inflation. “Monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians”.

Bottom Line

Monetary policy remains restrictive, as the chart above shows. While the target overnight rate is now 4.25%, core inflation is only roughly 2.4%. Real interest rates remain too high for the economy to reach its potential growth pace of about 2.5%. Weaker growth implies a continued rise in unemployment and excess supply in other sectors.

In separate news, the US released data showing that US job openings fell to their lowest level since January 2021, consistent with other signs of slowing demand for workers.

US job growth has been slowing, unemployment is rising, and job seekers are having greater difficulty finding work, fueling fears about a potential recession. Federal Reserve policymakers have made it clear they don’t want to see further cooling in the labour market and are widely expected to start lowering interest rates at their next meeting in two weeks.

In other news, consistent with a global economic slowdown, oil prices have plunged to new 2024 lows. Weak oil prices are a harbinger of lower inflation, growth and mortgage rates.

Bonds rallied in the wake of the disappointing US data, taking the 5-year government of Canada bond yield down to a mere 2.89%, well below the 3.4% level posted when the Bank of Canada began cutting interest rates in June. This decline in market-driven interest rates reduces fixed-rate mortgage yields. Moreover, today’s cut in the overnight rate will be followed soon by a 25 basis point reduction in the prime rate to 6.45%, reducing floating rate mortgage yields as well.

The Bank of Canada has two more decision dates this year: October 23 and December 11. At those meetings, the Bank is widely expected to continue its quarter-point rate cuts, taking the overnight rate down to 4.0% at yearend and 2.75% next year.

Embarking on the journey to purchase your first home is one of life’s most thrilling and rewarding milestones!

To ensure a smoother mortgage process, one of the smartest steps you can take is to get pre-approved for your mortgage. While pre-approval doesn’t lock you into a single lender, it does secure the interest rate offered to you for 90 to 120 days, providing a critical buffer if rates rise while you’re still house hunting.

### Why Rate Holds Matter in Mortgages

**Protection Against Rate Increases:** A rate hold guarantees that you will receive a specified interest rate for a set period, typically up to 120 days. This means you’re protected from potential rate hikes during that time. Plus, if rates drop, you can still take advantage of the lower rate!

**Financial Planning:** Knowing your exact interest rate allows for better financial planning and budgeting. You’ll have clarity on your expected monthly mortgage payments, making it easier to target the right price range for your new home and ensuring future financial stability.

**Time for Decision Making:** With a rate hold, you gain peace of mind and the necessary time to shop around for the right home. It allows you to compare different mortgage options without the pressure of rising interest rates. This is especially valuable when you’re considering various lenders or mortgage products.

**Stress Reduction:** Rate holds reduce the stress associated with rate fluctuations and uncertainties in the housing market. After the past few years of market volatility, having a secured mortgage rate can ease the pressure of finding a new home quickly. And if your rate hold expires, you can easily apply for a new one!

**Securing a Competitive Rate:** Even though interest rates are not expected to rise dramatically in the near future, locking in a rate while you shop can save you money in the long term. This ensures you have a favorable interest rate if the market unexpectedly shifts.

### Make the Most of Your Home Purchase with a Rate Hold

Overall, rate holds offer peace of mind, financial security, and the opportunity to make informed decisions when entering into a mortgage agreement. They are particularly valuable in fluctuating interest rate environments or when you anticipate delays in finalizing your mortgage transaction.

Are you planning to purchase a home soon? Want more information on how rate holds can benefit you? Reach out to me today!

Secure your future home with confidence by taking advantage of a rate hold and ensuring your path to homeownership is as smooth and stress-free as possible.

Danny Benjamin

T: 289-455-8801

E: dannybenjamin@dominionlending.ca